/* Written  9:28 PM  Nov 19, 1990 by cerisea in igc:reg.guatemala */
/* ---------- "Cerigua Briefs" ---------- */
	CERIGUA WEEKLY BRIEFS, November 11 - 17, 1990

Elections Marked by Low Voter Turnout

General elections were held in Guatemala on Sunday, November 11.
The two winners, who will now go on to the second round in
January, are Jorge Carpio Nicolle of the National Centrist Union
party (UCN), with close to 26% of the vote, and Jorge Serrano
Elias of the Movement for United Action (MAS), with just over 24%
According to official figures, 42% of registered voters abstained
from voting, 11% more than in the 1985 elections.  The Supreme
Electoral Tribunal reported on Tuesday that, excluding the 14% of
votes submitted null or blank, 1.5 million valid votes were cast
in the recent elections, compared to 1.9 million in 1985.  In
addition to these figures, it is estimated that 29% of eligible
voters in Guatemala are not registered.

Contrary to what has been reported in the U.S. press, this was not
the first transition from one elected government to another in
Guatemalan history.  The government of Juan Jose Arevalo, elected
in 1945, was succeeded by that of Jacob Arbenz, in democratic
elections in 1950. Voter abstention was lower in the second
election, in 1950, than in 1945, suggesting an increased belief in
the power of the vote to effect change.  By contrast, the greater
abstention in Sunday's elections could indicate lowered hopes for
such change than existed in 1985 when Vinicio Cerezo was voted
into office.  The possible reasons for low voter turnout include
the candidates' failure to address the country's critical problems
and the URNG's call to abstain from voting.  Abstention was
particularly high in the provinces of Escuintla (78%), Quiche
(71%) and Peten (69%).

Political Parties Lose Legal Status

Guatemalan electoral law states that parties whose candidates
receive less than four percent of the overall vote lose their
legal status, unless they secure a minimum of one seat in the
national Congress. Five parties, together known as "the one
percent platoon", did not manage to capture the votes necessary to
preserve their legal status: the National Renovation Party (PNR),
the Democratic Party of National Cooperation (PCDN), the
Democratic Party (PD), the United Front of the Revolution (FUR)
and the Emergent Movement for Concordance (MEC).

The Revolutionary Party (PR) just missed this fate by obtaining
one congressional seat in Chiquimula.  The ultra- right coalition
of the Movement for National Liberation and Front of National
Advancement (MLN/FAN) won three seats and the coalition Social
Democratic Party and Popular Alliance-5 (PSD/AP-5) won one seat.
Some reports (such as the Voice of America broadcoast in Spanish
on Monday night) have suggested that Guatemala's left was defeated
in this month's elections, but most observers do not consider that
the left was actually represented.  The names of traditional
Guatemalan left-wing parties appeared on the ballot, but these
parties have found it difficult to rebuild their leadership after
it was decimated ten years ago.  In 1979 two politicians,
described as Guatemala's brightest presidential hopefuls for the
1982 elections, were assassinated during a two-month period.
Manuel Colom Argueta and Alberto Fuentes Mohr of the United Front
of the Revolution (FUR) and Social Democratic Party (PSD)
respectively were killed within days of attempts to legalize their
parties.  Thirty-four other PSD and FUR leaders had been
assassinated by 1981. (See Jean Marie Simon Guatemala:  Eternal
Spring, Eternal Tyranny, p.72.)

Parties Begin to Line Up Behind Candidates

The runoff elections will take place on January 6 by a vote of the
full Congress, recently increased from 100 to 116 seats. All 116
members were up for election on Sunday.  Jorge Carpio's party, the
UCN, won 41 seats and the Christian Democrats (DC) won 28.  What
this means is that either candidate, but especially Serrano, whose
party, MAS, won 18, will need a coalition in order to win the
presidency and thereafter in order to get laws passed.  Serrano
has said that he made few enemies during the campaign, and has
every intention of making alliances. Indeed he has already begun
to put together his cabinet and is reserving posts for members of
parties with whom MAS expects to work: the DC, PAN (Party of
National Advancement) and MLN-FAN, according to the radio
broadcast Patrullaje Informativo on Thursday. Serrano has said he
will only put military officers in positions where they are needed
and, additionally, will not remove persons from posts in the
current government who are fulfilling their duties and not
breaking the law.

The number of seats in the Congress won by other parties are as
follows:  PAN-12, FRG (Guatemalan Republic Front alliance)-11,
MLN/FAN-4, PSD/AP5-1, PR-1.

On the Monday broadcast of Patrullaje Informativo it was already
being reported that PAN and DC will support Serrano in the second
round. The chief of the MLN, Mario Sandoval Alarcon, said his
party will support Serrano, and would never consider supporting
Carpio and the UCN because UCN vice- presidential candidate Manuel
Ayau "betrayed the MLN, leaving the party after nine months of
electoral work on his behalf," according to the radio broadcast
Guatemala Flash on Thursday.

Top Candidates Express Their Views

MAS candidate Jorge Serrano has promised to continue the dialogue
process with the armed opposition, and claimed that one of the
achievements during his presidency will be that the guerrillas lay
down their arms.  He also said he is willing to make the changes
in the constitution agreed to with the guerrillas, according to
Patrullaje Informativo on Monday.

On T.V. Channel 3, candidate Jorge Carpio said on Monday "in order
to advance it is necessary to forget, however difficult that may
be. The idea should be forgetting, pardon and reconciliation.  In
Guatemala all sectors have suffered; there must be reconciliation,
like in the French Revolution." He made reference to amnesty for
military officers, and he repeated the army's position that the
government would talk to the insurgents but the army would not,
"because [the army] is only a part of the government. The minister
of defense is one member of the cabinet."  He dismissed agrarian
reform as a ridiculous idea.

Both candidates are conservatives.  Both have backing in the
business sector.  CACIF, the group representing business
associations from all the important economic sectors, has
announced it will work together with the government of either
candidate.

Plantation Workers Say New Minimum Wage Is Not Being Paid

The Committee for Campesino Unity (CUC) reported this week that
plantation owners are not complying with the new minimum wage law
and farmworkers are suffering reprisals.  In the Thursday edition
of Prensa Libre,Diego Ixmata of the CUC was reported as saying
that the workers are prepared to take action if the Ministry of
Labor does not put pressure on landowners to pay the minimum
wage.

The Southern Campesino Union (UCS) charged in a paid ad over
Guatemala Flash on Friday afternoon that workers on the southern
coast are being laid off and "thrown into the street like an old
rag after having served so many years."  They demanded the
reinstatement of 300 workers and job security for another 1000 who
it has been rumored were going to be laid off.

The USC denounced discrimination against women and minors, who do
the same work as men but are paid less.  Friday's statement called
on workers to organize to demand the established wage, a trifling
10 quetzales per day, or approximately US $2.00.  Currently, some
employers are paying between Q5 and Q8 per day.

Major Hospitals May Be Forced To Close

Hospitals in Guatemala are once again in conditions that canonly
be described as desperate.  Minister of Health Carlos Gehlert said
the hospital system was assured of 30 million quetzales in August
to be used to finish out the year but that only 10 million
quetzales has been freed up by Congress, according to Notisiete
televion news on Wednesday.  Gehlert said the San Juan de Dios
hospital, one of the capital's two principal medical centers, as
well as hospitals in Quezaltenango, Totonicapan and San Marcos
could be closed at any moment.  San Juan de Dios hospital is
without a single suture or unit of IV fluid, and maternity
patients, some of the few still being attended, are being asked to
bring their own bandages and other essential supplies.  The
director of the provincial hospital in Retalhuleu said he has been
forced to limit meals provided to patients, according to radio
reports Thursday.  The Quiche and San Marcos provincial hospitals
are also without food and medicine, and only emergency and
outpatient services are functioning.

Indigenous Activist Found Dead

The Mutual Support Group for Relatives of the Disappeared (GAM)
reported in a press release Friday that Sebastian Velasquez Mejia
has been found dead; photographs of his body indicate signs of
torture. He was kidnapped on October 6 from the village of Chupol,
located in the Chichicastenango district in the province of
Quiche.

Velasquez' wife Rafaela Capir, their youngest child and other
relatives have been receiving death threats and have been forced
to leave their home to seek refuge in the headquarters of GAM in
the capital.

The victim's body was found in La Verbena Cemetery in Guatemala
City and was identified by his wife from photographs, according to
the Guatemalan Human Rights Commission.  Rafaela Capir has asked
that the body be exhumed.  The post-mortem report listed blows to
the thorax and abdomen as the cause of death.

Central American Presidents Postpone Meeting

The Central American presidents, who were to meet with the
president of Mexico on December 17 in the state of Chiapas, will
instead meet with him in early 1991, because of the Guatemalan
elections.  They will dicuss the free trade agreement between
Mexico and the United States, the Bush initiative for the Americas
and the regional peace process, according to Patrullaje
Informativo.

Thirty Years Since Uprising That Spawned Rebel Movement

November 13 marked thirty years since the 1960 uprising by a group
of Guatemalan army officers (some sources say one third of the
officers) against Guatemalan President Ydigoras for permitting the
use of Guatemalan territory to train Cuban exiles for the U.S.
invasion at the Bay of Pigs.  The officers involved in the
rebellion were of medium and low rank.  Following their defeat
they went underground forming an organization known as M-13.  In
1963, together with the Guatemalan Workers Party (PGT) and
university students, the officers founded the first Guatemalan
revolutionary group, the Revolutionary Armed Forces (FAR).  From
this original group the three present-day armed factions in
Guatemala were formed: the Guerrilla Army of the Poor (EGP), the
Organization of the People in Arms (ORPA) and the Rebel Armed
Forces (FAR).  In 1982 the three groups, plus one sector of the
Guatemalan Workers Party, together formed the Guatemalan National
Revolutionary Unity, the URNG.

*****************

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