Nicaragua News Service Published by the Nicaragua Network Education Fund April 28-May 5, 1996 Vol. 4, No. 17 by Donna Vukelich Major news stories for the week ending Sunday, May 5, 1996 1. FSLN Congress Ratifies Ortega Candidacy 2. FSLN Considers Political Alliances 3. Aleman Gains Political Allies 4. Opinion Polls Abound 5. Robelo Scandal Continues 6. News Briefs 1. FSLN Congress Ratifies Ortega Candidacy The FSLN's party congress met over this past weekend and overwhelmingly voted to elect Daniel Ortega as the party's official presidential candidate for the upcoming elections. Ortega polled over 500 votes, compared to some 60 for Vilma Nunez and only 2 for Alvaro Ramirez. Many Nunez supporters have commented over the past weeks that her campaign effectively ran out of steam shortly after the primary in February, making an Ortega victory at the Congress all but inevitable. Though Nunez has stated that she feels Ortega will be unable to bring in many more votes by October than he already has, and argued that her candidacy was one that could potentially have drawn in undecided voters, she never directly confronted either Ortega or the party machinery. The party also elected its candidates for National Assembly and the Central American Parliament. The list of Assembly candidates (at the national level) was headed by Victor Hugo Tinoco and includes the Reverend Miguel Angel Casco. Casco had run in the primary as a vice-presidential candidate, though it was clear in hindsight that the National Directorate had already made the decision to give the vice- presidential slot to a non-Sandinista in the hopes of forging a strong alliance that will make the combined ticket unbeatable in October. Tomas Borge headed the list for the Central American Parliament. Much of this week's Barricada coverage was devoted to party leaders emphasizing the need for the FSLN to make alliances, particularly with the productive sector. In the end, the Congress voted in Juan Manuel Caldera Lacayo as the vice presidential candidate. Identified in Monday's Barricada both as an engineer and a cattle rancher, Caldera Lacayo, 68 years old, said "Just call me a producer." He also noted that his property had been confiscated by the Sandinista government in the early 1980s. Daniel Ortega said of Caldera, "He voted for the UNO...he does not come here as a Sandinista, or to become a Sandinista; he is coming to contribute to the development of this effort." Ortega said perhaps Caldera could create a special production council, or cabinet, if their ticket is elected. In his acceptance speech, Ortega called for a government of national unity, declaring "We want to say to producers, to businessmen and to workers, join us in this struggle for peace and for the interests of the country." He said that if the FSLN wins, the vice-president will be active, not like "the doctor" (a reference to Virgilio Godoy). He called on all those who have left the FSLN to return, using the example of William Ramirez, who had been part of the MRS movement for some time, and then rejoined the FSLN. He said there would be no return to military service under an FSLN administration, adding that neither would there be confiscations of property. "We will not fill the government only with Sandinistas," Ortega said, "because we feel a government of national unity is essential." Though the FSLN has taken an official and clear stance regarding alliances, it remains to be seen to what degree the party will be perceived as sincere in its new effort. Some political observers feel that a Nunez candidacy, combined with a policy of alliances, would have been more effective than an Ortega candidacy. While Ortega clearly enjoys wide support from the FSLN base, the party will have to attract a far broader group of voters if it is to be victorious come October. And Vilma Nunez, who earlier this week said, "I would like to be the force of a new leadership within the FSLN", will not have the chance to test her strength at the national level. [Barricada, May 1 and May 6] 2. FSLN Considers Political Alliances William Grigsby, longtime political commentator and committed Sandinista militant, discussing the issue of political alliances and their central importance to the 1996 elections, points to the need for combined tickets to be broad enough to appeal to the undecided votes. According to CSE regulations, all parties registered for this year's elections must make any decisions about alliances by the end of this month. Grigsby feels that the Christian Democrats (UDC), though numerically quite small, have two important advantages to offer any group they may ally with. One is is their international influence, particularly because their colleagues are in power both in Germany and Chile. The other advantage is the fact that the UDC holds key positions in this administration, including, of course, the presidency of the National Assembly as well as posts on the Supreme Court. Several months ago, a UDC-MRS alliance seemed a virtual given, but with the MRS' nosedive in the polls, that appears less and less likely. Almost everyone, says Grigsby, is trying to cozy up to the Nicaraguan Resistance Party (PRN), the former contras. The FSLN would even be interested in this sort of alliance, although not with Fabio Gadea's more extremist faction. Several well-known politicians, still "unaligned" at this point, include Miriam Arguello and the always mercurial Alfredo Cesar. [Barricada, April 30] 3. Aleman Gains Political Aliies La Prensa of last week reported that the PRN faction headed by Radio Corporacion owner Fabio Gadea has allied with Arnoldo Aleman's Constitutional Liberal Party (PLC). But, rather than strengthening the PRN, the move further fractured the already fragile grouping, now split into four distinct factions. Angry over Gadea's decision, Luis Fley, a former contra officer, led a group of PRN supporters in creating the Authentic Party of the Nicaraguan Resistance. Gadea has an extremely conflictive history within the PRN, and nearly came to blows with Enrique Quinonez when the latter was named PRN presidential candidate several months ago. A spokeswoman for Fley, Ivonne Conrado, said that the "Northern Bloc" would be formed as a result of Gadea's decision, which she called personal manuevering. Conrado holds that some 70% of the PRN's base supports Fley. Also this past week, the Independent Liberal Party (PLI) decided to join forces with the PLC at the national level, putting an end to Virgilio Godoy's presidential candidacy, but retaining the right to run independent candidates at the legislative and municipal levels. The PLI will form part of the so-called Liberal Alliance, but will have its own slate on the ballot. "This is the only way of measuring the PLI's weight in the alliance," says Godoy, who is likely to run as a National Assembly candidate. [La Prensa, May 5, Barricada, May 6] 4. Opinion Polls Abound Not surprisingly perhaps, one cottage industry of 1996 will be political polling. Every several days, one of the daily newspapers reports some new finding "proved" by the latest poll. A recent Institute for Nicaraguan Studies (IEN) poll, as reported in Barricada, shows the FSLN with 26.4% support in Managua, and 20% support for the PLC. A full 40% of those surveyed said they were undecided (this should be a red flag for the FSLN, since July 1989 polls reported the FSLN with 40% of the vote, almost exactly what it polled in February of 1990; the huge bloc of undecided votes went, en masse, to the UNO). However, when asked about the presidential race, with no specific names given, the survey says that nearly 30% support Aleman, and 25% support Ortega. When candidates' names are mentioned, 31.4% support Aleman, and almost 28% support Ortega. Asked about alliances, 50% of those who identify themselves as FSLN supporters say they would prefer an alliance with the MRS over other forces. Asked about Managua mayoral candidates, 28.5% of those surveyed expressed support for Carlos Guadamuz, while 23% said they'd go with Pedro Solorzano, and only 11% with current mayor Roberto Cedeno. In other survey news, CINCO, a new polling organization (both Sofia Montenegro and Guillermo Rothschuh were named in the media coverage as representing CINCO) reports that most women in Nicaragua (74.6%) say they are not interested in politics per se (though 76% say they plan to vote), and instead listed issues they feel are important, and largely ignored, by today's politicians. Those issues include sexual violence, education, unemployment and poverty. Of the women surveyed, 30.2% said they supported Aleman and 19.4% said they supported Daniel Ortega. [This fact was not mentioned in Barricada, which played the story under a headline, "Women Support Guadamuz" as the survey said 21.8% of the women polled supported Guadamuz, with 16% supporting Solorzano and 15% supporting Cedeno.] [Barricada May 2, May 3, and La Prensa, May 1] 5. Robelo Scandal Continues The alleged involvement of Arriba Nicaragua presidential candidate Alvaro Robelo in a sophisticated money laundering effort continues to grab headlines here. La Prensa this past week devoted much space to the story, mentioning at one point, apropo of nothing, that Robelo and Daniel Ortega were "good friends". The Superintendency of Banks here in Nicaragua says institutions in Nicaragua are not being used for money laundering, as the Italian press charges. Barricada played on its front page Robelo's charge that the whole story has been fabricated to push him out of the presidential race. He attacks the "feudal bourgeoisie" in Nicaragua and says that Antonio Lacayo "hates" him and indirectly lays the blame for the accusations at Lacayo's door. In a longer interview in Barricada, Robelo said the country can go nowhere as long as it continues to pay such exorbitant sums for debt service payments, and floated an idea to set up an international consortium (insisting that he is the only one with the worldwide connections to do so) with the goal of building a new, state of the art, interoceanic canal in Nicaragua. Robelo describes himself as "an enlightened capitalist, an instrument of the people, which I have proved, because every company I've created, we've done so with the unions..." [La Prensa, April 28; Barricada May 1] 6. News Briefs * CENIDH issued a 200-page report detailing violations of labor rights in Nicaragua, by both government institutions and private enterprise. Acting CENIDH President Maria Lopez Vigil said that the main violations were of job stability, union freedom, just wages and respect for collective bargaining. CENIDH accuses the Ministry of Labor of partial and unfavorable application of the country's "obsolete labor code". [Barricada, May 2] * Speaking at a Chamber of Commerce meeting in Managua, US Ambassador John Maisto reiterated total US opposition to any possible rescheduling and/or postponing of the October elections. [La Prensa, April 30] * Three Salvadorans, along with a Spaniard who is still at large, were sentenced to between 12 and 16 years each for their involvement in the Santa Rosa arm cache explosion of May, 1993. [La Prensa, April 30] * The ongoing intense heat has led the water utility, INAA, to begin a program of fines. Anyone watering with a hose or otherwise deemed to be wasting water will be subject to fines. [La Prensa, May 1] * Union activists at the Victoria brewery charged that 350 workers, nearly 1/3 of the whole work force at the brewery, have been laid off without compensation. [Barricada, May 4]